151.1 Chapter preview151.2.1 Setting the Stage for the Assessment151.2.2 Key Concepts in Climate Science 151.2.3 Multiple Lines of Evidence for Climate Change151.3.1 Global and Regional Surface Temperatures151.3.2 Greenhouse Gas Concentrations 151.3.3 Extreme Events151.3.4.1 Sea Level151.3.4.2 Ocean Acidification 151.3.4.3 Ice151.3.4 Climate Change Indicators151.3 Indicators of Climate Change 151.4.1 Uncertainty in Environmental Science151.4.2 Characterizing Uncertainty151.4.3 Treatment of Uncertainty in IPCC 151.4.4 Uncertainty Treatment in This Assessment151.5.1 Capabilities of Observations151.5.2 Capabilities in Global Climate Modelling 151.5 Advances in Measurement and Modelling Capabilities151.6 Overview and Road Map to the Rest of the Report1514.1.1 Monsoons and Tropical Convergence Zones 1514.1.2 Modes of Climate Variability1514.1.3 Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones1514.1.4 Summary of Climate Phenomena and their Impact on Regional Climate 1514.1 Introduction1514.8.12 Southeast Asia1514.8.13 Australia and New Zealand 1514.8.14 Pacific Islands Region1514.8.15 Antarctica1514.8.1 Overview 1514.8.2 Arctic1514.8.3 North America1514.8.4 Central America and Caribbean 1514 Executive summary1514 References151 Executive summary 151 Frequently asked questions151 References152.1 Introduction 152.2.1.1.1 Carbon dioxide152.2.1.1.2 Methane152.2.1.1.3 Nitrous oxide 152.2.1.1.4 Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, Sulphur Hexafluoride and Nitrogen Trifluoride152.2.1.2 Ozone-Depleting Substances (Chlorofluorocarbons, Chlorinated Solvents, and Hydrochlorofluorocarbons152.2.1 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 152.2.2.1 Stratospheric Water Vapour152.2.2.2 Stratospheric Ozone152.2.2.3 Tropospheric Ozone 152.2.2.4 Carbon Monoxide, Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds and Nitrogen Dioxide152.2.2 Near-Term Climate Forcers152.2.3.1 Aerosol Optical Depth from Remote Sensing 152.2.3.2 In Situ Surface Aerosol Measurements152.2.3 Aerosols152.3.1 Global Mean Radiation Budget 152.3.2 Changes in Top of the Atmosphere Radiation Budget152.3.3.1 Surface Solar Radiation152.3.3.2 Surface Thermal and Net Radiation 152.3.3.3 Implications from Observed Changes in Related Climate Elements152.3 Changes in Radiation Budgets152.4.1.1 Large-Scale Records and Their Uncertainties 152.4.1.2 Diurnal Temperature Range152.4.1.3 Land Use Change and Urban Heat Island Effects152.4.2.1 Advances in Assembling Data Sets and in Understanding Data Errors 152.4.2.2 Interpolated SST Products and Trends152.4.2 Sea Surface Temperature and Marine Air Temperature152.4.3 Global Combined Land and Sea Surface Temperature 152.4.4.1 Advances in Multi-Decadal Observational Records152.4.4.2 Intercomparisons of Various Long-Term Radiosonde and MSU Products152.4.4.3 Additional Evidence from Other Technologies and Approaches 152.4.4.4 Synthesis of Free Atmosphere Temperature Estimates152.4.4 Upper Air Temperature152.4 Changes in Temperature 152.5.1.1 Global Land Areas152.5.1.2 Spatial Variability of Observed Trends152.5.1.3 Changes in Snowfall 152.5.2 Streamflow and Runoff152.5.3 Evapotranspiration Including Pan Evaporation152.5.4 Surface Humidity 152.5.5.1 Radiosonde152.5.5.2 Global Positioning System152.5.5.3 Satellite 152.5.5.4 Reanalyses152.5.5 Tropospheric Humidity152.5.6.1 Surface Observations 152.5.6.2 Satellite Observations152.5 Changes in Hydrological Cycle152.6.1 Temperature Extremes 152.6.2.1 Precipitation Extremes152.6.2.2 Floods152.6.2.3 Droughts 152.6.2.4 Severe Local Weather Events152.6.2 Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle152.6.3 Tropical Storms 152.6.4 Extratropical Storms152.6 Changes in Extreme Events152.7.1 Sea Level Pressure 152.7.2 Surface Wind Speed152.7.3 Upper-Air Winds152.7.4 Tropospheric Geopotential Height and Tropopause 152.7.5 Tropical Circulation152.7.6.1 Mid-latitude and Subtropical Jets and Storm Track Position152.7.6.2 Weather Types and Blocking 152.7.7 Stratospheric Circulation152.7.8 Changes in Indices of Climate Variability152.7 Changes in Atmospheric Circulation and Patterns of Variability 152 Executive summary152 References153.1 Introduction 153.2.1 Effects of Sampling on Ocean Heat Content Estimates153.2.2 Upper Ocean Temperature153.2.3 Upper Ocean Heat Content 153.2.4 Deep Ocean Temperature and Heat Content153.2.5 Conclusions153.3.1 Introduction 153.3.2.1 Sea Surface Salinity153.3.2.2 Upper Ocean Subsurface Salinity153.3.2 Global to Basin-Scale Trends 153.3.3.1 Pacific and Indian Oceans153.3.3.2 Atlantic Ocean153.3.3.3 Arctic Ocean 153.3.3.4 Southern Ocean153.3.3 Regional Changes in Upper Ocean Salinity153.3.4 Evidence for Change of the Hydrological Cycle from Salinity Changes 153.3.5 Conclusions153.4.1 Introduction153.4.2.1 Turbulent Heat Fluxes and Evaporation 153.4.2.2 Surface Fluxes of Shortwave and Longwave Radiation153.4.2.3 Net Heat Flux and Ocean Heat Storages Constraints153.4.3 Ocean Precipitation and Freshwater Flux 153.4.4 Wind Stress153.4.5.1 Changes in Surface Waves from Voluntary Observing Ship and Wave Model Hindcasts Forced by Reanalyses153.4.5.2 Changes in Surface Waves from Buoy Data 153.4.5.3 Changes in Surface Waves from Satellite Data153.4.5 Changes in Surface Waves153.4.6 Conclusions 153.5.1 Introduction153.5.3 Deep and Bottom Waters153.5.4 Conclusions 153.6.1 Global Observations of Ocean Circulation Variability153.6.2 Wind-Driven Circulation Variability in the Pacific Ocean153.6.3 The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 153.6.4 The Antarctic Meridional Overturning Circulation153.6.5.1 Indonesian Throughflow153.6.5.2 The Antarctic Circumpolar Current 153.6.5.3 North Atlantic/Nordic Seas Exchange153.6.6 Conclusions153.7.1 Introduction and Overview of Sea Level Measurements 153.7.2 Trends in Global Mean Sea Level and Components153.7.3 Regional Distribution of Sea Level Change153.7.4 Assessment of Evidence for Accelerations in Sea Level Rise 153.7.5 Changes in Extreme Sea Level153.7.6 Conclusions153.8.1.1 Ocean Uptake of Carbon 153.8.1.2 Changes in the Oceanic Inventory of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide153.8.2 Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification153.8.3 Oxygen 153.8.4 Nutrients153.8.5 Conclusions153.8 Ocean Biogeochemical Changes, Including Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification 153.9 Synthesis153 Executive Summary153 References 154 Executive Summary154 References3.5.2.1 North Pacific Intermediate Water 3.5.2.2 Antarctic Intermediate Water3.5.3.1 Upper North Atlantic Deep Water3.5.3.2 Lower North Atlantic Deep Water 3.5.3.3 Antarctic Bottom WaterAiguo DaiAlbert Klein Tank Alejandro OrsiAlex S. GardnerAndrey Kostianoy Ben MarzeionBen SanterBo Qiu Box 151.1 Description of Future ScenariosBox 152.1 Uncertainty in Observational RecordsBox 152.2 Quantifying Changes in the Mean: Trend Models and Estimation Box 152.3: Global Atmospheric ReanalysesBox 152.4: Extremes IndicesBox 152.5: Patterns and Indices of Climate Variability Box 153.1: Change in Global Energy InventoryBox 153.2: Ocean AcidificationBrian Soden Catia M. DominguesCecilie MauritzenDavid B. Stephenson David FrameDavid G. VaughanDeliang Chen Dennis HartmanDonald WuebblesEdmo Campos Eric LeulietteEric RignotFAQ 152.1 How Do We Know the World Has Warmed? FAQ 152.2 Have There Been Any Changes in Climate Extremes?FAQ 153.1 Is the Ocean Warming?FAQ 153.2 Is There Evidence for Changes in the Earth’s Water Cycle? FAQ 153.3 How Does Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification Relate to Climate Change?Fredolin TangangGeir Moholdt Georg KaserGregory C. JohnsonHans von Storch IPCC WikiIan AllisonIgor Polyakov Isabella VelicognaJames OrrJan-Gunnar Winther Jens Hesselbjerg ChristensenJoel NorrisJohn Kennedy Jon OlafssonJorge CarrascoJunhong Wang Kevin TrenberthKoji ShimadaKonrad Steffen Leopold HaimbergerLisan YuMalte Meinshausen Maria Cristina FacchiniMarkus DonatMartin Sharp Matthias HussMichiel van den BroekeMichio Aoyama Molly BaringerMonika RheinNatalie Mahowald Neil SwartNicholas R. BatesPanmao Zhai Paul. J. DurackPedro ViterboPeter Thorne Philip MoteRaymond SchmittRegine Hock Richard AllanRichard TolRobert H. Byrne Ronald KwokRowan SuttonSarah Cooley Sarah G. PurkeyScott DoneySimon A. Josey Stefan BrönnimannStephan GruberStephen R. Rintoul Sunke SchmidtkoUlrich CubaschVitali Fioletov W. 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